ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
6th December2025 - Sentiment analyst Mark Hulbert says Wall Street's best and brightest analysts miss wildly with their year-ahead stock-market forecasts. The investment firm with the best record forecasting the### S&P 500's year-ahead return for 2025 hasn't come close to being on target. Bear this in mind as you read Wall Street's predictions of how the U.S. stock market will perform next year - an annual forecasting ritual that virtually all firms participate in. If even the top-rated firm, Bank of Montreal, for the record, doesn't come close to being accurate, why pay attention to any of them? According to a Bloomberg analysis, the average absolute error in the top-rated firm's forecast of the S&P 500's subsequent-year price change was 10 percentage points between 2000 and 2024. For what it’s worth - Bank of America: 7,100, the most cautious forecast, warning of an AI ‘air pocket’ and reduced market liquidity - HSBC: 7,500, supported by AI spending, but acknowledges a ‘K-shaped’ economy - UBS: 7,500, fuelled by AI and strong corporate profits - JPMorgan: 7,500 with potential to surpass 8,000 if the ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
6th December2025 - The US$ dollar index has traded down to 98.76 during Thursday’s session, slightly short of downside targets of 98.15+/- although enough to complete a corrective [a]-[b]-[c] expanding flat### correction that began from the early-November high of 100.36. As commented in last Wednesday’s report, this will be an anxious test to determine if the dollar is now ready to continue September’s five wave impulse advance as minor wave c. towards 102.95+/-. Anxious because other dollar currency pairs are already testing important correction levels – if those levels fail to hold, it will lean more heavily towards the idea that the US$ dollar’s rally from September has already finished at 100.39 and is preparing to trend lower now, as intermediate wave (3) – [see report dt. November 12th for alternate bearish count #2]. Whilst the dollar’s correction between 100.36-98.76 is mirrored in the Euro/US$ between 1.1469-1.1681 and as an expanding flat in the AUD/US$ between 0.6440-0.6649, all leaning towards further US$ dollar strength, the US$/CAD has broken nearby support levels at 1.3888 today, trading down to 1.3830 heightening the probability that June’s ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
6th December2025 - Today’s latest U.S. inflation data for September showed a mixed picture - the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a### 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8% - the monthly rate was in line with consensus expectations but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August - in addition, headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8% - both of those readings were in line with expectations though the annual rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August. Financial markets put a roughly 87.2% chance on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December’s FOMC meeting although basis our analysis, we’d expect 87.2% to be cut as the yield rises. Interestingly, the US10yr yield has continued to push higher following the release confirming continued gains towards targets of 4.340+/-, in contradiction to consensus expectations... Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
6th December2025 - Gold and silver had another attempt at breaking higher today although both failed to regain earlier session highs with prices falling back towards the end-of-day trading. Gold remained### below its earlier high of 4264.55 trading up to 4259.58 before slipping lower to 4197.90 into the close. This maintains the completion of a counter-trend double zig zag pattern finishing at 4264.55 from October’s low of 3886.62 with further declines directly ahead. Silver has another look at this week’s earlier high of 58.94 trading up to 59.33 but again finding overhead sellers, drifting lower into the close of 58.34. This latest action is isolating the late-October rally from 45.56 into a corrective pattern – any further declines next week would heighten the probability of more sustained corrective declines ahead. Platinum is a good proxy for silver as both are industrial metals with similar rhythm – platinum’s decline from Monday’s high of 1727.20 has been followed by an intra-hourly five wave decline to 1607.20 and a three wave corrective rally to 1677.70 confirming downside trajectory – that’s considered bearish for gold and silver too. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would take Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region ‘by force’ ... Read full summary in our latest report!
