ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - Latest Market Commentary
Stock Indices
9th May 2024 - April’s rallies across both U.S. and European indices are now reaching optimum, if not maximum upside targets. Benchmark indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have declined from April’s highs ###into only three waves down into the late-April lows and with strong rallies since, opens the question whether last month’s highs were peaks for the year, or if these three wave declines are simply zig zag corrections within continuing uptrends. Our analysis is placing more emphasis on the fact that several indices have completed clear and concise zig zag/flat advances from the 2022 lows into last month’s highs, as either b waves of larger degree expanding flats/zig zags, or as wave x within double zig zags. Good examples are the single zig zag rallies from the Oct.’22 lows in the Dow Jones, Value Line, Nasdaq 100 Next-Gen and the semi-conductor SOX ETF – the small-cap Russell’s 2022 rally has unfolded into an expanding flat... Read full summary in our latest report!
Currencies (FX)
9th May 2024 - The US$ dollar index has been confirmed as completing December’s double zig zag rally as minor wave ii. two between 100.62 and April’s high of 106.51 (see inset). So far, the decline into last Friday’s ###low of 104.52 has unfolded into a fractal 1-2-1 pattern with another 2nd wave rally unfolding higher this week towards 106.05+/- ahead of downside continuation as minor wave iii. three. The Euro/US$ has completed December’s counter-trend double zig zag decline into April’s low of 1.0601 and is now trending higher. The same goes for Stlg/US$ - its counter-trend expanding flat downswing from December’s high if 1.2828 completed a 2nd wave correction late last month at 1.2299 and is now trending higher – US$/Yen is confirming an important high traded at 160.19 late-April with rumours the Bank of Japan has intervened to support the Yen by the tune if selling up to $59bn dollars - a multi-month corrective decline has begun US$/Yen targeting ... Read full summary in our latest report!
Bonds (Interest Rates)
9th May 2024 - Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Interest rates in the U.S. currently stand at such ‘restrictive’ heights that they can help tamp down demand and cool sticky inflationary pressures. Speaking### in South Carolina, Barkin said he is ‘optimistic’ that the current level rates, a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, should be enough to bring the pace of price growth back down to the Fed's target. Barkin also said he does not believe the economy is on track to overheat, a concern that has factored into the central bank's decision not to ratchet down rates earlier this year as initially expected. Should the economy slow significantly, he added, the Fed has the ‘firepower’ at its disposal to supply the necessary support. But Barkin noted that inflation, the central focus of a steep recent tightening cycle by the Fed, is proving difficult to ease. US10yr yields have ended December’s counter-trend rally at the late-April high of 4.737 and is now trending lower. It looks like we’re edging closer to a June interest-rate cut by the European Central Bank said Chief Economist Philip Lane adding that recent Eurozone data made him more certain inflation is returning to the 2.0% goal. Meanwhile, the DE10yr yield is turning down from the late-April high of 2.648 to begin the final sequence of a corrective decline targeting levels towards 2.053+/-. ...Read full summary in our latest report!
Commodities
9th May 2024 - Gold has most probably completed minor wave iv. four’s corrective downswing that began from the early-April high of 2430.77 into last Friday’s low of 2278.98. Momentum studies are now in ###oversold territory which is positive whilst the US$ dollar index has correspondingly completed December’s counter-trend upswing and is now turning down to begin an accelerative 3rd wave impulse downtrend, providing a tailwind for gains in gold’s current 5th wave advance. Gold miners could ideally do with digging a little deeper inside corrective downswings that began from April’s highs although the dominant uptrend remains intact. Platinum has just finished a five wave uptrend from the late-April low of 905.50 into Tuesday’s high of 992.80 and is now heading lower as a short-term correction back towards fib. 38.2% retracement levels of 959.50+/- ahead of resuming its uptrend – Platinum has a completely different rhythm to Silver at the moment – Silver’s low at 26.00 completed minor wave iv. fours correction from the early-April high of 29.80 and is now trending higher as minor wave v. five. Crude oil is fully discounting any geo-political news from... Read full summary in our latest report!
